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Metropolitan Journal of Academic and Applied Research
Volume 5 - Issue 7 (July)

The Expectation Gap and the Erosion of Trust: How Mismatched Government and Citizen Expectations Have Undermined Governance in Uganda

Authors: Dr. Arinaitwe Julius1 , Dr. Twinomujuni Rosebell2 , Asiimwe Isaac Kazaara3

Keywords: Expectation Gap, Trust Erosion, Governance, Uganda, Public Administration, Citizen Expectations, Structural Equation Modelling

This study examined the expectation gap between government institutions and citizens in Uganda and assessed how such mismatches have systematically eroded public trust and undermined governance effectiveness. Drawing on a cross-sectional survey of 412 respondents sampled from four districts — Kampala, Wakiso, Gulu, and Mbarara — the study employed a mixed-methods quantitative design underpinned by principal-agent theory and social contract theory. Univariate analysis revealed that 71.8% of respondents perceived a significant gap between what government promised and what was delivered, with only 28.2% expressing satisfaction with public service outcomes. Bivariate correlation analysis demonstrated statistically significant negative relationships between the expectation gap and trust in government institutions (r = -0.623, p < 0.001), citizen engagement (r = -0.541, p < 0.001), and perceived overnance quality (r = -0.587, p < 0.001). Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) confirmed that the expectation gap directly reduced trust (β = -0.48, p < 0.001), which in turn diminished citizen participation (β = -0.39, p < 0.001) and perceived service delivery quality (β = -0.42, p < 0.001), with the model explaining 54.3% of variance in governance outcomes. Key drivers of the expectation gap included poor communication of government plans (M = 4.31/5.00), inconsistency in policy implementation (M = 4.18/5.00), and absence of accountability mechanisms (M = 4.05/5.00).
The study concluded that bridging the expectation gap requires deliberate institutional reforms, transparent communication strategies, and robust citizen feedback mechanisms. It recommended that the Government of Uganda institutionalise participatory policy formulation processes, strengthen independent oversight bodies, and invest in civic education to calibrate citizen expectations to realistic governance capabilities.
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The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on the Job Market among Youths in Lubaga Division, Kampala, Uganda

Authors: Nambayo Janefer1 , Irumba Alex2

Keywords: Artificial intelligence; job market; youth employment; automation; digital skills; skills divide; labour market transformation; Lubaga Division; Kampala; Uganda.

Artificial intelligence is reshaping labour markets globally, yet its consequences for youth employment in low-income African economies remain contested between displacement and augmentation accounts. This study examined the impact of artificial intelligence on the job market among youths in Lubaga Division, Kampala. Adopting a positivist philosophy and a cross-sectional survey design, data were collected through enumerator administration from 384 youths aged 18 to 30 selected via multistage sampling across the division's parishes. A structured questionnaire measured four artificial intelligence dimensions, namely task exposure and automation risk, AI skills acquisition and digital literacy, access to AI-enabled work platforms, and AI awareness and adoption in the workplace, against job market outcomes assessed through employment status and security, earnings, skills relevance, and perceived future prospects. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation, and multiple regression in SPSS version 26. Findings revealed that AI awareness recorded the highest mean while AI skills acquisition recorded the lowest. Task exposure correlated negatively with job market outcomes (r = −0.548, p < 0.01) while the three capability dimensions correlated positively, with AI skills acquisition strongest (r = 0.673, p < 0.01), followed by access to AIenabled platforms (r = 0.612, p < 0.01) and workplace adoption (r = 0.529, p < 0.01). The regression model was significant, F(4, 366) = 74.16, p < 0.001, explaining 44.8 per cent of variance, with AI skills acquisition (β = 0.348) dominant. The findings situate within evidence that 50.9 per cent of Ugandan youth are neither employed nor pursuing
education and that national unemployment rose from 9.4 per cent in 2014 to 12.6 per cent in 2024 (EPRC, 2024), and corroborate the augmentation account whereby workers with AI expertise command wage premiums of up to 56 percent (PwC, 2024, cited in AfriCatalyst, 2025). The study concludes that AI's youth labour market impact operates principally through the skills divide rather than through displacement, and recommends AI skilling integration, platform access expansion, and adoption of the complementarity principle articulated in Uganda's international labour position.
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The Influence of Substance Abuse on Family Functioning: A Case Study of Kyazanga Town Council, Lwengo District, Uganda

Authors: Muwumba Isaac1 , Karyoko Yaweri2

Keywords: Substance abuse; alcohol use disorder; family functioning; expenditure diversion; intimate partner violence; adverse childhood experiences; Kyazanga Town Council; Lwengo District; Uganda.

Uganda records one of the highest levels of alcohol consumption in Africa, yet the consequences of substance abuse for the family as a functioning social unit remain comparatively underexamined relative to its individual health effects.
This study examined the influence of substance abuse on family functioning in Kyazanga Town Council, Lwengo District. Adopting a positivist philosophy and a cross-sectional survey design, data were collected through enumerator administration from 278 adult household members selected via multistage sampling from households in the town council. A structured questionnaire measured four substance abuse dimensions, namely frequency and quantity of use, expenditure diversion, intoxication-related behaviour, and duration and chronicity of use, against family functioning assessed through communication, role performance, affective involvement, and behaviour control. Data were analysed
using descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation, and multiple regression in SPSS version 26. Findings revealed that frequency and quantity of use recorded the highest mean while duration and chronicity recorded the lowest. All four dimensions correlated significantly and negatively with family functioning, with expenditure diversion strongest (r = −0.706, p < 0.01), followed by intoxication-related behaviour (r = −0.658, p < 0.01), frequency and quantity (r = −0.579, p < 0.01), and duration and chronicity (r = −0.512, p < 0.01). The regression model was significant, F(4, 265) = 68.41, p < 0.001, explaining 50.8 per cent of variance in family functioning, with expenditure diversion (β = −0.331) and intoxication-related behaviour (β = −0.287) the dominant predictors. The findings situate within a literature documenting that alcohol use in Uganda is socially accepted and consequently under-reported (Ssebunnya et al., 2020), that problem drinking is associated with physical intimate partner violence (Tumwesigye et al., 2012), and that adverse childhood experiences predict later heavy consumption (Satinsky et al., 2022), suggesting an intergenerational transmission pathway. The study concludes that the mechanism of family harm is economic and behavioural rather than merely medical, and recommends household-level economic protection, integration of brief intervention into primary care, and family-inclusive rather than individual-only treatment.
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The Role Of Organic Farming In Enhancing Soil Fertility And Crop Productivity In Uganda: A Case Study Of Kirewa Sub County, Tororo District

Authors: Owori Daniel Loyo1 , Natukunda Charles2

Keywords: Organic Farming, Soil Fertility, Crop Productivity, Smallholder Farmers, Sustainable Agriculture, Kirewa Sub County, Tororo

This study examines the role of organic farming practices in enhancing soil fertility and crop productivity among smallholder farmers in Kirewa Sub County, Tororo District, Uganda. Declining soil fertility, driven by continuous cultivation, limited fallowing, and heavy reliance on synthetic inputs, has emerged as a major constraint to smallholder productivity in many parts of Uganda. Organic farming encompassing practices such as composting, crop rotation, use of animal manure, and agroforestry is widely promoted as a sustainable alternative capable of restoring soil health while maintaining yields. The study is guided by three objectives: to assess the level of organic farming practice adoption among smallholder farmers in Kirewa Sub County, to examine the level of soil fertility and crop productivity in the sub-county, and to establish the relationship between organic farming practices and soil fertility/crop productivity outcomes. A cross-sectional survey design is proposed, targeting smallholder farming households in Kirewa Sub County. Data would be analysed using descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation, and multiple regression.
This report presents an illustrative results template using clearly labelled simulated data demonstrating the expected structure and interpretation of descriptive, correlation, and regression tables. The study concludes with recommendations for farmers, extension services, and agricultural policymakers.
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Vocational Training Uptake as a Response to Academic Pipeline Attrition: A Propensity Score Matching Analysis

Authors: Dr. Mategeko Betty1 , Ahumuza Audrey2 , Dr. Twinomujuni Rosebell3

Keywords: vocational training; academic attrition; propensity score matching; educational pathways; youth employment; skills certification; selection bias; treatment effect estimation

Academic pipeline attrition, whereby learners exit formal secondary or tertiary education before completion, remains a persistent challenge across many low- and middle-income education systems, and vocational training (VT) has increasingly been promoted as a structured re-entry pathway for such learners. This study applied propensity score matching (PSM) to examine whether uptake of vocational training among academically attrited youth was associated with improved employment, income, and skills-certification outcomes, while accounting for selection bias arising from non-random enrolment into vocational programmes. A cross-sectional analytical design was used, drawing on a simulated cohort of
620 youths who had exited the academic pipeline, of whom 211 (34.0%) subsequently enrolled in vocational training. A multivariable logistic regression model was fitted to estimate propensity scores from ten baseline covariates, followed by 1:1 nearest-neighbour matching without replacement within a 0.2 standard-deviation caliper of the logit propensity score, yielding 185 matched pairs. Covariate balance improved substantially after matching, with the mean absolute standardized mean difference falling from 0.163 to 0.040. In the matched sample, vocational training uptake was associated with a 21.1
percentage-point increase in twelve-month employment (95% CI: 11.1 to 31.0; p
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