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Metropolitan Journal of Academic and Applied Research

The Village Exodus: Unpacking the Seasonal Reverse Migration and Consumptive Surge in Rural Uganda

Authors: Ahumuza Audrey1 , Asiimwe Isaac Kazaara2

Journal: Metropolitan Journal of Academic and Applied Research (MJAAR)

Volume/Issue: Volume 5 - Issue 3

Published: 01 Jan 1970


Abstract

Background: Rural Uganda experiences distinctive seasonal reverse migration patterns wherein urban-based workers return to ancestral villages during specific periods, triggering substantial economic activity through concentrated consumption expenditure. Objective: This study examined the patterns, determinants, and socioeconomic impacts of seasonal reverse migration and associated consumptive surge in rural Ugandan communities. Methods: A mixed-methods longitudinal design was employed across four rural districts (Mukono, Masaka, Mbarara, and Lira) between January 2024 and December 2024. The study utilized stratified random sampling to select 480 households (240 with returning migrants, 120 with non-returning migrants, 120 non-migrant households) and conducted a census of 360 local businesses across six sectors. Data were collected through structured surveys at three time points capturing demographic characteristics, migration patterns, household consumption expenditure, and business revenues. Univariate analysis described variable distributions, bivariate analysis employed chi-square tests and t-tests to compare periods and household types, and mixed effects models with random intercepts controlled for repeated measurements and unobserved heterogeneity while examining the relationship between migration status and expenditure, and between migration intensity and business revenue. Results: Households with returning migrants constituted 66.7% of the sample, with returnees averaging 2.8 visits per year and 8.7 months of urban duration. These households experienced a statistically significant 169% increase in mean monthly expenditure during peak periods (from UGX 839,742 to UGX 2,260,152, t=-29.388, p
Keywords

reverse migration, circular migration, rural consumption, seasonal economy, remittances, ruralurban linkages.

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