MJAAR

Vocational Training Uptake as a Response to Academic Pipeline Attrition: A Propensity Score Matching Analysis

Dr. Mategeko Betty, Ahumuza Audrey, Dr. Twinomujuni Rosebell


Abstract

Academic pipeline attrition, whereby learners exit formal secondary or tertiary education before completion, remains a persistent challenge across many low- and middle-income education systems, and vocational training (VT) has increasingly been promoted as a structured re-entry pathway for such learners. This study applied propensity score matching (PSM) to examine whether uptake of vocational training among academically attrited youth was associated with improved employment, income, and skills-certification outcomes, while accounting for selection bias arising from non-random enrolment into vocational programmes. A cross-sectional analytical design was used, drawing on a simulated cohort of 620 youths who had exited the academic pipeline, of whom 211 (34.0%) subsequently enrolled in vocational training. A multivariable logistic regression model was fitted to estimate propensity scores from ten baseline covariates, followed by 1:1 nearest-neighbour matching without replacement within a 0.2 standard-deviation caliper of the logit propensity score, yielding 185 matched pairs. Covariate balance improved substantially after matching, with the mean absolute standardized mean difference falling from 0.163 to 0.040. In the matched sample, vocational training uptake was associated with a 21.1 percentage-point increase in twelve-month employment (95% CI: 11.1 to 31.0; p<0.001), a 37.8 percentage-point increase in skills-certification attainment (95% CI: 28.4 to 47.3; p<0.001), and a mean monthly income advantage of UGX 91,100 (95% CI: 78,100 to 104,200; p<0.001). Regression-adjusted estimates within the matched sample corroborated these findings, and Rosenbaum bounds sensitivity analysis indicated that the employment and income effects would remain significant unless an unmeasured confounder increased the odds of treatment assignment by more than 72% and 97% respectively, suggesting reasonable robustness to hidden bias. The study concluded that vocational training uptake functioned as an effective structured re-entry mechanism for academically attrited youth, meaningfully improving labour- market outcomes even after adjustment for observed and, plausibly, moderate unobserved confounding. The findings support strengthening referral linkages between academic institutions and vocational training providers as a policy

Keywords

vocational training; academic attrition; propensity score matching; educational pathways; youth
Metropolitan Journal of Academic and Applied Research

Cite This Article

Dr. Mategeko Betty, Ahumuza Audrey & Dr. Twinomujuni Rosebell (2026). Vocational Training Uptake as a Response to Academic Pipeline Attrition: A Propensity Score Matching Analysis. Metropolitan Journal of Academic and Applied Research, 5(7). https://journals.miu.ac.ug/pages/article.php?article_id=678

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