MJAMR

Relationship between Inflation and Unemployment in Uganda

Arinaitwe Julius, Ariyo Gracious Kazaara, Kamugisha Nelson


Abstract

The study aimed at the relationship between Inflation and Unemployment in Uganda and it was guided by the following objectives; To determine the relationship between consumer demand and unemployment rate, to determine the relationship between government expenditure and unemployment rate and to determine the relationship between exchange rates and unemployment rate. To adequately analyze and understand the intricate relationship between inflation and unemployment rate in the Uganda context, researchers in the past had employed rigorous quantitative and qualitative methodologies. On the quantitative side, Muhumuza and Kasekende (2019) leveraged cointegration and error correction modeling techniques on time series data from 1980 to 2015 obtained from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics to empirically test for both the short-run and long-run dynamics between inflation and joblessness. Their vector error correction model specification as cited in the African Development Review allowed them to separately identify the influence of demand and supply shocks on the Phillips curve relationship over different time horizons. From the findings, the positive sign indicated a positive relationship, implying that higher exchange rates were associated with higher unemployment rates. The standardized coefficient of 0.712 indicated that a one-standarddeviation increase in exchange rates was associated with a 0.712 standard deviation increased in the unemployment rate. This standardized measure allowed for the comparison of the relative impact of exchange rates with other variables in the model. The very low p-value (p < 0.001) associated with the t-statistic for exchange rates indicates that the relationship is statistically significant. Specifically, the central bank must formulate monetary policies using a optimal policy mix approach that incorporates complementary fiscal, incomes and structural measures to stimulate aggregate demand and jobs growth without fueling cost-push inflationary pressures above target.

Keywords

consumer demand government expenditure exchange rates inflation and unemployment rate
Metropolitan Journal of Academic Multidisciplinary Research

Cite This Article

Arinaitwe Julius, Ariyo Gracious Kazaara & Kamugisha Nelson (2024). Relationship between Inflation and Unemployment in Uganda. Metropolitan Journal of Academic Multidisciplinary Research, 3(1). https://journals.miu.ac.ug/pages/article.php?article_id=1231

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