MJAMR

Relationship Between Exchange Rates And Trade Balance In Uganda. A Case Study Of Kampala District

Akampurira Nuwahereza


Abstract

The study aimed at relationship between exchange rates and trade balance in uganda with a case study of kampala district. The researcher leveraged the Johansen cointegration test and vector error correction modeling to analyze the short-run and long-run dynamics. Specifically, for Kampala, the study utilized a vector autoregressive modeling technique on quarterly data series spanning 1997 to 2011 on the exchange rate, exports, imports and trade balance indicators sourced from the Bank of Uganda and Uganda Bureau of Statistics. Their structural vector autoregressive framework permitted tracing individual variable impulse responses to identify direction of influence over different time horizons. The study applied an autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach on monthly data from 2000 to 2018 on Uganda's real effective exchange rate and disaggregated export earnings by commodity sourced from various national statistics organizations. The intercept or constant term was 2.041. This represents the estimated value of the trade balance when the independent variable (trade balance) was zero. However, interpreting the constant in the context of the trade balance might not be meaningful. The coefficient for the trade balance was 0.395. This represents the change in the trade balance for a one-unit change in the trade balance itself. The standard error for the constant was 0.128, and for the trade balance, it was 0.041. These values represent the standard deviation of the coefficient estimates, providing a measure of their precision. It is recommended that Uganda diversifies its exports and implements complementary trade promotion strategies and incentives to maximize benefits from exchange rate changes. For instance, supporting value addition and product differentiation through industry standards, incentives for innovation and skills development.

Keywords

exchange rates and trade balance and trade performance
Metropolitan Journal of Academic Multidisciplinary Research

Cite This Article

Akampurira Nuwahereza (2024). Relationship Between Exchange Rates And Trade Balance In Uganda. A Case Study Of Kampala District. Metropolitan Journal of Academic Multidisciplinary Research, 3(1). https://journals.miu.ac.ug/pages/article.php?article_id=1233

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